Katie Rich: Hello and welcome to Little Gold Men, the awards season podcast from Vanity Fair. Speaker 2: It's such an honor to present this next award. Speaker 3: And here are the nominees- Speaker 4: And the Oscar goes to... Speaker 5: And the Oscar goes to... Speaker 6: And I can't deny the fact that you like me, right now, you like me. Speaker 8: I'm the king of the world. Speaker 9: There's a mistake. Moonlight, you guys won Best Picture. Katie Rich: I am Katie Rich. I'm here with Richard Lawson. Richard Lawson: Hello. Katie Rich: With David Canfield. David Canfield: Hi. Katie Rich: And Rebecca Ford. Rebecca Ford: Hello. Katie Rich: We have fun new releases to talk about today. We have enormously glitzy, uh, in person events to talk about. Maybe the glitziest we'll get for a while now. Um, and we want to, uh, continue talking about what David wrote in last week's newsletter about the underdogs of the season. But I wanna start basically by just grilling David Canfield. Um, who did you see and where at the Academy Museum Gala on Saturday night? It kinda sounds like the answer is everyone. David Canfield: I think that is the, the answer. Katie Rich: [laughs] David Canfield: Not that I expected that. You know, this is only the second gala. They were celebrating the first anniversary of the museum. It had been talked about by publicists and, and awards people as, like, well, we've got the gala as our first stop this season. Which I didn't necessarily know that that meant that literally if you were not there, you missed out. [laughs] Um, because there were- Katie Rich: Ouch, David. Ouch. David Canfield: ... a lot of people there. Well, I wor- I mean, I mean on the talent side. Katie Rich: [laughs] David Canfield: I mean, like, it's an amazing campaigning opportunity, I would say. Katie Rich: Yeah, so this is a relatively new event, as you said. The Governor's Awards we've talked about plenty in the past as being like a really classic stop that happens in roughly November. I think last year it happened at a weirder time because last year was a weird year. But it sounds like the Academy basically saw the opportunity to add another event that they were in charge of and ran with it, right? David Canfield: Yeah. And maybe nobody wants to turn down an invite- Katie Rich: [laughs] David Canfield: ... from the Academy. Um, but you had the might of the Academy inviting, you know, non-contenders who are- just happen to be Oscar winners and huge names. You know, you would see Kerry Washington talking to Julia Roberts sitting in one corner of the eye and then you'd see Joe Jonas and Sophie Turner in the y- you know, it's- it was just everybody. But in terms of movies represented, um, you had multiple people from Every- Everything Everywhere All at Once, from The Banshees of Inisherin, Bones and All, The Good Nurse, which is- which is to say Oscar winners Jessica Chastain, Eddie Redmayne, um, the Woman King, you know, on and on. So it definitely felt like, oh, awards season is here [laughs]. Festivals are over. We are in Los Angeles right now and we are- we are ready to enter a new phase. Rebecca Ford: I loved seeing pictures of, I think, Emma Stone and Alicia Vikander posing together- David Canfield: Yup. Rebecca Ford: Just like a, you know, like when they use to bring all the living Oscar winners out on stage at the ceremony and you'd be like who's sitting next to who? It was like that but in, in party report form. David Canfield: Emma Stone is a perfect example of- like I, I did do a double take just 'cause she's kinda been out of the limelight for a few years after having her, her kid. And you just didn't expect to see her there. And she has a- she doesn't carry herself with a lot of, uh, you know, it's not like Julia Roberts entering a room necessarily. So she just sort of walked by me and I turned around and I was like, is that Emma Stone? And someone said, "Yeah, that's Emma Stone." And then that was kind of the vibe of the whole night. Rebecca Ford: David, she was the star of Oscar nominee Cruella last year. How quickly we forget. David Canfield: She was. But that was still spring. She, she could stay in her Zoom box. Katie Rich: David, you mentioned the, uh, team behind Everything Everywhere All at Once. And we talked about them last week because, Richard, you did a Q&A with them. And then David you had your turn on the West Coast with Michelle Yeoh. I don't know if that means that you got more special treatment. But, um, at the risk of talking about them too much, it sounds like they're, they're [inaudible 00:03:53] offensive really continues apace. David Canfield: Yeah. We talked about- they were at the Academy Museum Gala. We talked about that. Um, and this was a SAG screening. And there was- there were multiple standing ovations. The, the love between that cast is, now that I've seen it in person, can attest to Richard's point last week, completely undeniable. And I, I just don't think anyone's gonna top their energy on the trail this season. So make of that what you will. Because as we were talking about, that tends to be predictive [laughs] in the modern Oscar world. Katie Rich: Yeah. I was gonna ask and maybe to lead into what I wanted to talk about with the underdogs of the season, like, how long before we start talking about Everything Everywhere All at Once as like a real threat to win best picture? David Canfield: Now. Richard Lawson: I mean, I was kind of convinced when I did that Q&A, honestly. Katie Rich: [laughs] Wow. That's the power they have- Richard Lawson: I mean, 'cause it was a SAG audience. And they were like eating it up, you know? And like- David Canfield: Yeah. Richard Lawson: ... the actors are a really big branch of the Academy. So they'll probably go in on nominating at least two people I think in that cast. And, you know, and then on and then on. You know, I guess, like obviously there will be predictive awards before that. I don't know if I see that movie necessarily doing well in the critics' prizes. But like there are plenty of other things that the movie will have the opportunity to be on stage and to be together at events, you know? So I don't know. I think it's a big force. And I just don't see that coalescing around, say, the Fabelmans. Katie Rich: Or Tar for that- you know, thinking about- Richard Lawson: Right. Katie Rich: ... critics and, you know, couldn't Michelle Yeoh be a threat as a best actress critical darling? Like if it's her versus Cate Blanchett and Cate Blanchett is "the overdog." I don't know. I can see a path there. Richard Lawson: Yeah. Rebecca Ford: Yeah, I, I feel like critics groups sometimes also wanna go with the unexpected choice. And I, I, I do think there's still a narrative because this film is, you know, a genre that isn't always part of this conversation that it feels like sort of the surprising choice. So I wonder if it's gonna show up more than we expect in those groups too. Katie Rich: Yeah. And with Best Picture I feel like every year we have, like, well, you know, they've never historically gone for X thing. And as the Academy keeps changing and, you know, tastes in general change, like those rules get broken more or less every year. Um, I mean, it does feel like a wilder movie than anything that we've seen in this conversation before. But again, like every year, you know, we didn't think a, a, a international film could win Best Picture until it did. So why not? Richard Lawson: I started the Q&A, uh, earlier this week by asking the audience how many of them were seeing it for, like, and I said the second time. And the amount of people who were like fifth time, sixth time, seventh- Katie Rich: [laughs] Richard Lawson: ... time. And these are SAG, you know, these are SAG- this is the nominating committee. Katie Rich: Wow. Richard Lawson: So that to me was really indicative of how much passion there is for the movie. And to me, it is a wild movie. It is a weird movie. It is at times a kind of gross movie. But I- it lands with such emotional force. And, and that seemed to be the main takeaway for- it has seemed to be the main takeaway for audiences that I've spoken to since it first premiered at South By that I, I don't know that that's gonna be much of a, a hindrance. I, I just feel like the way this race has gone over the last few years is the movie that voters connect to- Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. Richard Lawson: ... uh, is the movie that wins. And CODA was a first in all kinds of ways. Parasite was a first in all kinds of ways. So I, I'm reluctant to look at this movie being, you know, about multiverses and saying well that- I don't think it can do that. Because clearly, uh, it's connecting on a pretty seismic level right now. David Canfield: There's also nothing grosser in Everything Everywhere All at Once than Tony Lip folding a pizza in half and eating it in Green Book. Katie Rich: [laughter] David Canfield: So- Richard Lawson: Absolutely correct. Katie Rich: I mean, the hot dog fingers, I think we could have that conversation about which one's grosser. But, uh, but- Richard Lawson: I did shiver- Katie Rich: ... point taken. Richard Lawson: ... at the mention of Tony Lip. That was- I wasn't ready for that. Katie Rich: [laughter] Um, well I wanted to talk about contenders who feel like underdogs in, in some way. Like, you know, need to continue pushing the boulder up the hill to be part of the conversation. And I think in Best Picture it's a little different because you have 10 nominees. You can- you know, the underdogs could certainly be nomin- could certainly be nominated. But I was interested in who you think might be an underdog to win Best Picture? Like we talked last week about the Fabelmans and where it kind of stands as this like presumed front runner for lack of other information. But is there anything else you guys see besides Everything Everywhere that really could win Best Picture and maybe we're not talking about it in those terms yet? Rebecca Ford: Yeah. It's hard because there's a lot of films that are so polarizing this season it feels like. You know- Richard Lawson: Mm-hmm. Rebecca Ford: ... I feel like Tar is so strong. But at the same time a lot of people aren't, you know, loving it as much as I did and a lot of us on this podcast did. Yeah. I think it's just gonna take a little more time to see what really pops, especially when we start having more events like the one David went to, because I think, you know, we're able to read those rooms and see what's re- what everyone's really talking about. Um, and be around people and ask them in person what, what they're talking about. But it- nothing feels like that- it quite has that momentum that Everything Everywhere has at the moment. David Canfield: I'm curious to see how Banshees plays this weekend. It's Martin McDonagh's most acclaimed movie. It feels like everyone that I've spoken at least likes it and usually really likes it. Colin Farrell and Brian Gleason have been getting out there. They're kind of in- ridiculously charming as a pair, which is crucial for this movie because it is about their characters "break up." Uh, and it has a lot, you know, it has- it's Martin's most beautiful movie. It has a really good score. You know, it has a lot of areas where it can hit. And if Searchlight really pushes it, I could see that being in that- in that top tier for sure. Katie Rich: Yeah. I think- I wanna talk about Banshees a little bit more later as we're gonna get into what's out this week. But I think the promotion on that movie has been kind of vague about the story both because there's- there's surprises and there's, uh, there's a metaphor at play in there. And I, I can imagine in January, you know, ads for Banshees coming up being like well it's a movie about friendship but it's also a movie about all these bigger ideas. And- David Canfield: Yes. Katie Rich: ... and you want- I think any successful Best Picture campaign usually has like this is a movie about X. And it's a- a kind of a broad concept. And that, that part of Banshees has yet to happen, which I think is probably smart. Richard Lawson: Is there any world in which Avatar 2 comes out, it's good, it makes a quadrillion dollars, and that sort of suddenly puts it at the front of the, the race? Uh, you know, 'cause it- Katie Rich: Yeah. Richard Lawson: ... the original did get nominated. Right? Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. Richard Lawson: Um, I don't think anyone- David Canfield: Yeah, it almost won. Katie Rich: It almost won! Richard Lawson: It al- right. Yeah. Yeah. It was not like the fifth joke nominee or whatever. You know? It was- it was like real. Uh, you know, and I think a sequel is hard because maybe they would wanna wait to do the return of the king thing and do it at the end of the- of the franchise's run- Katie Rich: [laughs] When there's a- like Avatar Six in 2075. Richard Lawson: Yeah. Katie Rich: Whenever that happens [laughing]- Richard Lawson: Right, exactly. Like, like I don't even know if, like, podcasts will exist when [laughter], when Avatar w- eight comes out. Um, so I don't know. I'm, I'm kind of holding out hope that there is a kind of late season- like I- surprise. Maybe not necessarily a winner but like what if Babylon is, like, a huge movie? Or what if Avatar 2 is great? Wh- what if Wakonda Forever? You know? Because I just can't really tell what mood the Academy is in. But I just have- Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. Richard Lawson: ... a feeling it's not gonna be something small. Um, just because this is the first year really back since the pandemic and, um, I don't know. I think there's gonna wanna be a sort of celebratory vibe to the whole season. Katie Rich: Well that's the question I was gonna raise with Top Gun Maverick too. Um, you know, you wanna talk about a huge movie. There's a- if Avatar 2 outgrosses it, like that would be really spectacular for a single year. That's a really high bar to clear. I think there's maybe even more resistance to that movie from an Oscar perspective, and you guys can tell me if I'm wrong, than with Avatar 2 'cause Avatar is at least a sequel to a, a Best Picture nominee. Um, I think the sheer size of Top Gun Maverick might feel off-putting to Oscar voters. But, uh, like you said, Richard, it's hard to tell what the mood is. Like that movie is such a huge success story for the industry as a whole. Does that make it more of an appeal? Or is the super international Academy gonna be like you have enough. Go away. I can't tell. Richard Lawson: Hm. Yeah. Does it win something like PGA? That would be- Katie Rich: Yeah. Richard Lawson: ... it's a long shot. But if it- it, it could. It is the movie that saved Hollywood by all reported accounts that I've seen. So, um, yeah. I think there will be that kind of support for it. But the Academy usually tends to lean a little bit less in that direction, especially recently than, um, guilds particularly or just the p- public at large [laughing]. Katie Rich: Yeah. Well that's also where Everything Everywhere All at Once comes in conveniently 'cause it's also a huge box office success on a different, you know, it, it came before Top Gun telling people that people might go a- actually go back to theaters and it's such a labor of love and, you know, on, on a scale more familiar for Oscar movies. So maybe that makes it a happy medium. Okay. I wanna talk about, uh, underdogs in the acting categories a little bit. And we've talked about Best Actress here and there. And I can't remember if we've had this conversation on the air or just kind of in the background where it seems like there's more or less, like, six really major best actress contenders and five slots. Um, and I can run them down real quick. But I maybe wanted to look at people beyond this six at who you think might break in. So tell me if this is wrong. Conventional wisdom says Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Olivia Coleman, Danielle Deadwyler, Michelle Williams, Viola Davis are the- Richard Lawson: Yup. Katie Rich: ... the six more or less. Do you see anyone else breaking into that six, much less the, the top five? Richard Lawson: I mean, I don't think she would get nominated but, like, I just reviewed the Good Nurse, um, and I think Chastain is really good in it. David Canfield: Yeah. Richard Lawson: Um- Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. Richard Lawson: ... it's a total reversal from Tammy Faye in that she- it's, it's very like interior and quiet and small. You know, it's a very different kind of performance but I think she's really good at it. Um, you know, and I kind of actually would like to see more in that vein from her. You know? But, you know, that movie it's getting a tiny little theatrical release but it's mostly a Netflix movie. It's kinda gray and bleak. And it's not, you know, I don't know if it's big enough to, to register. But I think she's- I think she's really good in it. Rebecca Ford: I do wonder if that movie had sort of had like a Sony Pictures Classics release or something like that- Katie Rich: Mm. Rebecca Ford: ... how it would have done. Um, I did a panel with them on Friday, with Jessica and Eddie Redmayne and the filmmakers. And they're definitely getting out there and, and promoting the film and, and doing, you know, a big awards push for it. So I, I agree. It's a great performance from her. It's a great performance from Eddie. So I definitely would like to see them remain a part of the conversation if, if not. And we can't count Jessica out. Richard Lawson: No. Rebecca Ford: You know, she, she can do this. So, uh, we saw it last year. So I think that's a good pick, Richard. Richard Lawson: I think there's also a possibility that the Good Nurse could benefit from the fact that Netflix's other expected offerings are not maybe doing as well [laughing] as, as planned so far. Like I think that, uh, White Noise kinda didn't make enough noise at New York Film Festival as it hoped to. Bardo is a big question mark, you know? And so maybe there is room in the sort of campaign budget or campaign, you know, sort of a- attention span or whatever to, to actually devote some Good Nurse time, uh, and get them into that conversation in a real way. David Canfield: Yeah. Good Nurse felt to me like a really solid HBO movie from like 10 or 15 years ago, which has yielded many an award nominee. So [laughing], um- Katie Rich: Well, I've been thinking about Netflix and true crime though, Dahmer being the biggest thing on their platform right now. Like I wonder if peop- a ton of people don't find their way to it through that algorithm. And they're like, you know what's good is the Good Nurse. Um, I can see like Netflix being weirdly a good home for something like that. Richard Lawson: Yeah. And I think it's pretty accessible, um- Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. Richard Lawson: ... certainly more than a lot of their contenders this year. Um, which, which is very helpful. It's an- a pretty audience friendly movie. And it has two performances that I think are very strong and that people will like a lot. And, um, and that are also from people who have won Oscars and are getting out there for this movie which helps. Um, yeah. I, I don't think they should be counted out at all. It's- it had a solid Toronto premiere. Um, I think the question is just how it can stick- how well it can stick around, um- Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. Richard Lawson: ... 'cause it is coming out a little bit earlier and these are not necessarily actors who are gonna be, you know, pounding the pavement for months on end. But it does seem like Eddie Redmayne's won like three Tribute Awards this [laughs]- at various festivals this season already. So he's definitely getting out there. Katie Rich: They are both very good campaigners. I feel like we've all witnessed this, uh, firsthand over the years. Richard Lawson: I mean, that's how he won, Redmayne. Absolutely. Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. David Canfield: Mm-hmm. He's very charming. Katie Rich: And I think because the film, you know, I had people messaging me and being like, oh no, another true crime serial killer dark movie. But because of the way they tell the story, and it's written by Krysty Wilson-Cairns, who's, I think, a really, really strong, uh, screenwriter, it's, you know, it's much more about Jessica's character and it doesn't feel- like I got so burned out on those true crime things, as I think we all did. And so it feels very different. So I wonder if people who go in expecting one thing and, and discover a different kind of story might also have, you know, such a positive viewing experience that'll help boost it up too. David Canfield: Hm. Richard Lawson: On the other end of the Netflix spectrum I would love to bring up Ana de Armas for Blonde in this context. [laughter] Um- Katie Rich: She's an underdog. Richard Lawson: Mainly because, and I heard this a lot from, like, I can't necessarily say who they were, but like Academy members at the gala. The, the sentiment of, wow, she was so good and wow, I hated that movie so much, was so- Katie Rich: [laughs] Richard Lawson: ... common. And I, I don't know if that helps or hurts her chances. But, you know, obviously there are visceral reactions to this movie. It's very divisive. I think since it was released divisive leaning toward negative in terms of the overall viewer reception. But there seems to be no questioning that people really, really loved her in this movie. And that the movie was pretty widely seen, which are two important ingredients, I would say, for an Oscar campaign. I don't personally think it's enough for her to overcome the overall reception to the movie. But I d- I was surprised by how often she was coming up at that event. Katie Rich: I can't remember the last time a movie was disliked that strongly and an actress st- or actor still got nominated. But I do agree that's the- I've heard that same sentiment of, like, she is amazing in this. I think if there were less, um, if there were fewer front runners and such- Richard Lawson: Mm-hmm. Katie Rich: ... gigantic, like, clear nominees in this category, she would definitely have a- more of a chance. Richard Lawson: Yeah. The, the other person who kept coming up in that kind of way, just 'cause it was released the day before, was Danielle Deadwyler. But it was more like, I liked the movie a lot and, oh my God, D- you know, it was- it was- Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. Richard Lawson: ... so it wasn't like this movie sucked [laughs] which it was for Ana. And I think that that's the difference is performances outshine their movies all the time. But the distaste for Blonde, uh, makes it a much harder path for her, I think. David Canfield: I mean how much compassion is there in the Academy? Do you think there's any chance they'd be like we just gotta make it worth her while. I mean, she really suffered [laughter] for that thing. Like we gotta give her some a- some nominations, you know? Because that, I think, would be the trick. Is like, yeah, we d- we hate the movie but like look what the movie put this actor- Richard Lawson: Yes. David Canfield: ... through. And she's a big year, a big couple years. Like, you know, she's earned this, um, in a way that maybe, I don't know, one of the other people in the- in the r- conversation haven't. I don't know. Katie Rich: Yeah. I mean, looking at recent nominations, like, Cynthia Erivo in Harriet, which is a not especially well received movie, like not hated on the level of Blonde 'cause few things are, but she kind of had that rising star shine about her and I think got that nomination. And then same for Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman which, you know, that was a pandemic year. A lot of factors were strange. But people- some people hated that movie and she got that nomination anyway. And again, was kind of a rising star. So maybe that's a formula that can- carries over for Ana de Armas. Okay, Best Actor. We've talked about some of the, you know, potential spoilers in this category. David, from Telluride you were talking about both Bill Nye and Song Kang-ho who, uh, were out there pou- pounding the pavement. Um, who else are you seeing kind of- I mean, really it's Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, Colin Farrell and then a bunch of question marks. So it's not even like outside- David Canfield: Mm-hmm. Katie Rich: ... the five. It's like who, who else is gonna push themselves up into the conversation here? David Canfield: Well, Katie, you are an Adam Sandler expert- Katie Rich: [laughs] David Canfield: [laughs] Um, not to count him out though. He's, he's, he's getting out there. Katie Rich: You know, I- he's getting out there. He's in an- again, like on- in a Netflix movie that is seen. I think it was a big- a big success on the platform. I think when he does interviews, like not to brag, but like, like, the one that he did with us where he's just being kind of like frank and looking at his career, and you're- are kind of encouraged to think of him as not, like, that guy who makes like silly movies with his friends but like a real force in American comedy for the last 30 years. And, like to something of his credit, like a white guy- a middle aged white guy who's not out there being like, ah, cancel culture these days. Like it's all- kids are a problem. Like he's keeping up in some way. Um, I don't know how much more campaigning he's going to do. Like he doesn't have to do anything if he doesn't want to really. Um, but yeah. I, I certainly wouldn't count him out. I was pretty won over by that conversation. David Canfield: Hm. One of the, um, bigger presences at the Academy Museum Gala was Decision to Leave- Katie Rich: Mm. David Canfield: ... which I found fascinating. I mean, I think a big part was that Miky Lee, uh, the media mogul was being honored. And she's been such a force in getting Korean projects that more mainstream American, particularly awards, recognition. But I wonder about that movie, which had a very strong opening over the weekend. And Park Hae-Il is so good in it. And I would like to see him be a part of that conversation, especially given the fact that it is so wide open and now he is the face of a hit. It's a- it's, it's playing really well. I think that there's a lot of expectation and hope for this to be Park Chen Wook's Academy moment, which may or may not materialize. But regardless, it is getting that kind of treatment and that kind of campaign. And it would be nice to see him swept up in that a little bit. Rebecca Ford: I am hopeful for Jonathan Majors as I continue to be [laughs], it's my part time job along with working here. Um, because I, I think he is really impressive in Devotion- David Canfield: He really is. Rebecca Ford: ... and I mean, the problem is we- the movie doesn't come out 'til November. Like I don't know how it's gonna do at the box office. There's a lot of question marks for this film. But there's no denying his performance. And he has been out there on covers showing off his giant muscles. And was he at the Academy event, uh, David? David Canfield: Sure was. Rebecca Ford: Yeah. And he's like, you know, he's pounding the pavement and a- I, I talked to a lot of people who do- did enjoy the film. So I would like to see if can make a run for it. Katie Rich: I didn't realize he was in Creed 3, which had the, the posters come out yesterday I think. And it's coming out on March 3, 2023 for Creed 3, which I- that timing must be ideal for Oscars somehow. I don't remember how the dates line up exactly. Um, but he's just so everywhere. Like you talk about someone who's a star on the rise, like his undeniably that. Um- David Canfield: Mm-hmm. Katie Rich: ... so I guess it's a question of if the- if the Oscars get on board sooner or later, really. Um, I wanted to throw out for Gabriel LaBelle of the Fabelmans. Um, even th- I, I have my constant refrain about, uh, being wary of child performances but he's 19. He is a- he is an adult. And I think has an, an adult level performance in that movie. David Canfield: Yes. Katie Rich: Like it's not wide eyed kid. He's like really, like, going through a lot of things as a character, is so charming and interesting and carries so much of that movie. Um, I don't know. I, uh, I mean, again, the Fabelmans is a question mark for us in a lot of ways and I don't know how much it- it's gonna carry him or how much of it will be the Michelle Williams and Paul Dano show. But I thought he was really terrific in it. Okay, I wanna go to Supporting Actress and maybe back to Everything Everywhere All at Once, actually, for a second. Um, 'cause that movie has two strong Best Supporting Actress contenders I think- David Canfield: Mm-hmm. Katie Rich: ... in Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu. And it's up against, uh, a movie with a, a gazillion strong Best Supporting Actress contenders in Women Talking. Um, I don't even know who to call the underdog in this category at this point. Um, but to go to Everything Everywhere, do you think they're gonna have to choose between, uh, Stephanie and Jamie Lee here? Or is a path for both of them viable? David Canfield: My fear is this is going to be a Belfast situation. Katie Rich: Mm. David Canfield: Where Stephanie Hsu is amazing in this movie and anchors it. And I think has the toughest role, actually. I mean, it is- it's a lot of work. And she just nails it. Um, but Jamie Lee Curtis is the un-nominated veteran who is wildly fun in this movie. She's one of the most memorable parts of the movie for purely visual reasons [laughing] at times. But now that she is getting out there and she was also, you know, there's also, I think, really good press for her with the end of the Halloween franchise, i- her part of the Halloween franchise even as the movie was not well received, I, I wonder if she will become a clearer candidate for that movie. And I, I hope that Stephanie Hsu can stay in the conversation because we were all very shocked when Caitriona Balfe was not nominated and fairly surprised when Judy Dench was. But to me that just had to do with standing in the industry. And this, to me, seems like another example of that. Katie Rich: Richard, I will long remember you suggesting her as a long shot Best Actress contender when the first Halloween legacy [inaudible 00:24:50] was premiering- Richard Lawson: Jesus Christ. Katie Rich: ... at Venice, I think? Richard Lawson: Yeah. Katie Rich: I mean, this was before you saw it and to your credit. But I think you recognized something that's now become much more clear for everyone which is like, she's never been nominated. That's bananas. Richard Lawson: Yeah. And, you know, to be fair, she hasn't really done much that would kind of catch that kind of attention. You know? I mean, Halloween seemed like, yeah, a nostalgic thing. You know, Sigourney Weaver was nominated for Aliens, like it can happen. Um, but those three Halloween mo- Halloween movies are horrible so [laughs], uh, I, I think that, you know, that was that. But this is like- this is close enough to- I mean, it is an Oscar-y movie. It's going to be. And, um, I think, yeah, I think she has a good shot. I think also, sorry. I was just looking on like the credits and stuff. And for some reason I had in my mind that Jamie Lee Curtis was a producer on the movie but I don't think she is. Um, but she kind of acts like one, but not in an obnoxious way. Like- Katie Rich: Hm. Richard Lawson: ... I think people have let her sort of be one of the mascots of the film. And I think, you know, in my Q&A with her, like, she was seeming- she wanted to pass that off to Ke Huy Quan, which is a- you know, so like maybe he'll become kind of the emissary of the film. But like she is a big- she is very associated with it in a way that I think she could really benefit from just, you know, if, if it- if it gets screenplay, if it gets Best Picture nominations, like, she would, I think, come along with that tide. David Canfield: Her favorite tweet she told me is- Katie Rich: [laughs] David Canfield: ... uh, I wish I loved anything as much as Jamie Lee Curtis loves Everything Everywhere All at Once. Richard Lawson: There you go. Katie Rich: [laughs] Richard Lawson: Yeah. David Canfield: And then she read the tweet aloud to the audience to ecstatic cheering. So, yes. She is- she is the mascot of the movie and she's happy with the role. Rebecca Ford: I mean, same honestly. Um, looking through the list of- I went at the film experience, um, where I go just to see the, you know, the wide- wideness of the field, there's- aside from Ann Hathaway in Armageddon Time, Samantha Morton in She Said, and Jesse Buckley in Women Talking, it's a ton of people who have never been nominated before, which is really exciting. Like ranging from Stephanie Hsu to Jean Smart, to Claire Foy. Like it's such a range of people who have not had their Academy moment. So I feel like this category has the most potential for just like really thrilling results on Oscar morning. Richard Lawson: I was talking a friend about this. I mean, I think that because Carey Mulligan is running in Supporting for She Said, which I think is a solid movie, um, but Jennifer Eley is great in one scene, or a couple scenes- David Canfield: Mm-hmm. Richard Lawson: ... in that movie. Um, something like that could be kind of fun. Like a smaller role. I mean like kinda we're gonna have Judd Hirsch on the Supporting Actor side. Like I wonder if there's- Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. Richard Lawson: ... that. But I think the problem is a lot of the times tho- those roles, there's someone else just above them who is also competing in that same category. David Canfield: Yeah. Katie Rich: Maybe category fraud. That's where people get the angriest about it, right? Richard Lawson: Right. David Canfield: Carey Mulligan is in She Said more than Michelle Williams is in the Fabelmans, I'm pretty sure. Katie Rich: Ah, yeah. This- this is- this is where people start to lose their minds [laughing] about that- David Canfield: This is- and I'm- for the record I am- I am okay with Michelle going lead for Fabelmans. So it's all eyes on Carey Mulligan now, I suppose [laughing]. I think there are two contenders here with- where it's worth looking at them in terms of having a really strong lead performance to go off of. One is Nina Hoss for Tar. I can see the global Academy membership really going for her because she's such an, you know, icon in Europe and this is one of her biggest English language roles to date. And she is- it's not a showy role, um, but it's a very memorable one. And really tied with, with Cate Blanchett in this movie and, uh, I could see her getting swept up, you know, in kind of the way that Jesse Clemens was for Power of the Dog if the movie's a big hit. Um, and then the other is Hong Chau for The Whale. Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. David Canfield: Uh, who I think is really, really wonderful in that movie. And is having a really big year. She's in a ton of things. She's in The Menu. She's in the new Kelly Reichardt movie. She's always so great. And I think there's an awareness that she's always so great. And now having a movie where the lead actor is, you know, a guaranteed nominee, likely winner, I think could help her chances to find her way into the five, especially if the movie pulls on those heartstrings enough to get some overall votes. Rebecca Ford: Um, I also wanna bring up two people. I think Dolly de Leon in Triangle of Sadness has been getting, you know, people are talking about this performance even though it comes in the last third of the film. Um, and- but she just like- the minute she's on screen I feel like you can't take your eyes off of her. And she just delivers such a strong performance that I'm hopeful, um, that that could sort of be the acting performance from that film that, that gets, uh, a lot of attention. And then, um, my big question mark is Angela Bassett because, yes, Wakonda Forever is a Marvel movie and a sequel, but- and none of us have seen it, but I do think the fact that she has not been nominated since '93 and has this, like, incredible history of performances makes me wonder if, if she does have a big enough part in this film, you know, if people will want to sort of give her that recognition. Katie Rich: I love a world in which it's, um, Angela Basset and then Jean Smart in Babylon who swoop in at the end of the year being like, hello, we've been here forever. You're going to nominate us this year. Step aside young ones. Um, I- the- I think that would be exciting for all of us. Um, speaking of veterans, I did wanna bring up one more, uh, winner who's in here and who was, uh, there to personally greet everyone at the Academy Museum Gala. Uh, Laura Dern's still in the race, I think, for The Son, which has had a- David Canfield: Mm-hmm. Katie Rich: ... pretty mixed critical reception. Like how much is she just such royalty that she can overcome a movie that's maybe not so, so well loved? David Canfield: She was my favorite part of the movie. I think that she was quite a few people's favorite part of the movie, actually. And the movie is getting a push. She's getting out there for the movie. And she is royalty. So there's the math. I, I- Katie Rich: Yeah. David Canfield: ... I- there's a path for sure. I, I, I think the problem with this category is it feels smartest to bet right now that three of the nominees are gonna be from Women Talking and Everything Everywhere All at Once. Or maybe even four [laughing]- Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. David Canfield: Um, you know, and I think Kerry Condon is a pretty likely nominee for Banshees of Inisherin. The Woman King also has a couple really strong contenders. You know, it's, it's really stacked. And I think it's going to be very hard for a contender in a movie that is not an overall big player to, to sneak in. Uh, could be wrong but it just feels like that is the current direction of this category. Richard Lawson: I mean, The Son feels like a huge Golden Globes play. David Canfield: Also that. Richard Lawson: I mean, Hugh Jackman's going to be a Golden Globe nominee for that movie. Katie Rich: Guys, they've changed. Have you not heard the- David Canfield: All right. You're right. Sorry, sorry. We shouldn't- we shouldn't, uh- Katie Rich: I mean, it- it sounds like you guys are implying it's a comedy. So I wanna be clear. It's not a comedy- Rebecca Ford: No, no. Katie Rich: It's just a starry movie that the Globes would like. We'll get to the Globes. I can't wa- wait to talk about those. Richard Lawson: I mean, The Son could have its fans, you know? I mean, I think it's crass and manipulative and kind of badly acted. But, like, that, that, that- that hasn't stopped the Academy before. So I, I don't know. I think, uh, that's- uh, we shouldn't count that one out. I- but I think, yeah, Dern is probably the best bet from that movie. Although Jackman could benefit from actor being kind of wide open m- other than Brendan Fraser, obviously. Katie Rich: Yeah. Um, well let's go to Supporting Actor then. Um, and, you know, again there's some big heavy hitters we're seeing at the top. I was thinking about Ke Huy Quan who I felt like was such an underdog for so long. And now looking at Everything Everywhere and the fact that he's the only Supporting Actor, it's like oh, he's actually in a really good spot [laughing]. Um, so I, you know, I would look further down. Like have we answered the Paul Dano question in Fabelmans yet? Do we know if he's going Supporting or Lead? David Canfield: Last I heard it is unresolved. Katie Rich: Well then. I mean, he's got a pretty tough road then 'cause it's either- it's tough in Best Actor and then also he's got Judd Hirsch, like, you know, barging into the race the same way he barges into the movie to steal all the attention. Richard Lawson: He is in no way a lead in that movie. That- that would be silly. Katie Rich: I would agree. I think that Michelle Williams's case for being a lead in that movie is much stronger than it is for him. Richard Lawson: Yeah. David Canfield: I had- this was my thing about Stephen Yeun in Minari a few years ago. I felt- I feel like it's about the same. Katie Rich: Mm. David Canfield: And Stephen Yeun got in. So- Katie Rich: But that was the COVID year, David. And all the rules were weird [laughing]. David Canfield: I think actor's super weird this year. So I- be- being- representing the Best Actor front runner, a Best Actor front runner in that category is very valuable this year because none of them are right now [laughs]. You know, Austin Butler- Katie Rich: You mean picture front runner? David Canfield: Yeah, I mean- Katie Rich: Yeah. David Canfield: ... except for Colin Farrell, you have Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler. And those movies- Katie Rich: Yeah. David Canfield: ... could get in but they're certainly not gonna win. And I think both are right on that bubble. Um, whereas, you know, being in the lead of- the designated lead actor of the Fabelmans, um, I would not- I would not count him out. He, he did a big GQ profile this week that seemed to reintroduce him as a- someone who is willing to campaign and play the game a little bit more. He's, um, he hasn't historically. So I thought that was really interesting. And I think Judd Hirsch is really almost near certain to be nominated here for Fabelmans because it's, it's gonna be such a clear career nomination. He hasn't been nominated since, um, God when was- Katie Rich: Ordinary People, I think- David Canfield: Yeah. Katie Rich: Uh, 1980- 81? 80? David Canfield: Yeah, so 40 years. [laughs] Um, and he's- Katie Rich: He's 87 years old. That's incre- I had no I- I just like somehow didn't realize that that was how old he was. Richard Lawson: And when I talked to him at that Banshees of Inisherin party last week, he was very spry, very lucid. Funny. Campaigning for his movie, you know, to someone he just met, which was me. Um [laughter], you know, like he's out there. And again, I think- I said it, you know, during the festival season, like I can't remember the last time someone got applause when their character left the movie- Katie Rich: [laughs] Richard Lawson: ... halfway through the movie. You know? And that's what Judd Hirsch got, not just at my screening but at the screening after that. So, yeah. He's like definitely a significant Alan Arkin Little Miss Sunshine sort of presence, I think. David Canfield: That's a perf- yeah, that's a perfect analogy. Katie Rich: Yeah. Uh, well I was gonna compare him to Anthony Hopkins just as someone who is, uh, getting up there in years and is out on the campaign trail. But we should talk about actual Anthony Hopkins, uh, and Armageddon Time, which I think is a tough movie. I mean, James Gray has never really done all that well Oscar-wise. I don't know if this is gonna break that streak. But he's really good in it and the Oscars seem to love Anthony Hopkins. Like I think if that movie has a shot, it might be him. David Canfield: Hm. I think Jeremy Strong is the one out there for the movie- Katie Rich: That's true. David Canfield: ... for what it's worth. Katie Rich: He has been everywhere. David Canfield: But- and Anthony Hopkins also- is also great in The Son, actually. Uh, he has one- Katie Rich: He's in less of The Son, right? David Canfield: He is. He has one- Katie Rich: Meaty scene. David Canfield: ... I would say probably the most impactful scene- Katie Rich: Yeah. David Canfield: ... for me. Um, and it's, it's very I think tied with his collaboration with Florian Zeller in The Father. So, um, it, it could- it could land. Yeah. Anthony Hopkins is there. He's always there. Katie Rich: [laughs] Um, well then maybe I'll talk about a- a long shot who's a little bit closer to home for us 'cause David you talked to Barry Keoghan, uh, u- for this show- David Canfield: Yeah. Katie Rich: ... earlier this week. And he is, like Paul Dano, in competition with someone in his own movie. Brendan Gleeson's running in Supporting. I think he seems like a pretty, uh, strong contender to actually be nominated. Do you see Banshees getting two nominees a la Three Billboards? David Canfield: I've been using Power of the Dog as an analogy for this movie a lot in terms of the amount of nominations it can get. Um- Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. David Canfield: ... partly 'cause it literally has the same quartet of actor, supporting actress, and two supporting actors, one of whom, Brendan Gleeson, is, you know, going to make it through I think and is the ob- ob- more obvious play. But Barry Keoghan is really ki- in a weird way the heart of the movie behind Colin Farrell. And, um, really sweet in it and against hype. And people seem to love his performance in it. So I wouldn't count him out, especially if the movie becomes an overall top tier contender. You know, it- it ha- it seems to happen more and more, like Judas and the Black Messiah as well where- Katie Rich: Mm-hmm. David Canfield: ... the- an ex- an extra actor seems to get into this category in a way that is not expected. And he seems- that movie seems to be the one for Supporting Actor that, that would pull that off. Rebecca Ford: Yeah. I do think if we don't see him get it for this that that kid is gonna be- be nominated in one of his future projects. I think he picks great films and he always delivers. And he's just, I think, one of the most exciting young actors working today. David Canfield: Yeah. Matter of when, not if. Rebecca Ford: Yup, totally. Katie Rich: Yeah. Your interview with him was so winning, David. He was just being like I wanted to show people that I can be something other than sinister [laughing] which- David Canfield: He's so charming. Katie Rich: [laughs] I know. Rebecca Ford: He's also so good at sinister. Katie Rich: I know. But he's so just like pitiful, I'd like- and creepy in Banshees. You know, his character, like, goes through a lot. You- but you- you- you see the human there the whole time, which is not easy to pull off. David Canfield: It's funny 'cause right before I did the interview I watched him- his, um, audition tape for Joker as the Riddler where he, like, made the short film of himself looming through hallways. [laughs] Katie Rich: Wow. David Canfield: And it is- it is brilliant DIY work. He ultimately did not get that role. Paul Dano got the role who may be nominated- Katie Rich: [laughs] David Canfield: ... against him here [laughs] for all we know. Um, the la- Richard Lawson: But he got joker. David Canfield: ... the last person- Yeah. And then he got Joker. Um, which remains unclear how big of a role that will be. But, you know, presumably we can't get enough of the Joker. So- Katie Rich: Yeah. David Canfield: ... stay tuned. Um, the other person I would've wanted to bring up here is Brian Tyree Henry, who, uh, Causeway is a- it's a pretty minor movie and I think Jennifer Lawrence has, you know, she's good in it but she's certainly given more dynamic performances. But Brian Tyree Henry, to me, was the real star of this movie and is so good in it. Such a- it's such a- it's a- the kind of performance that you would always hope finds love in this category because he- it's, it's a small movie. He gets this really rich, complicated character to play and just completely runs away with the movie. Um, and he's just always so good. So he's someone I'm rooting for. Katie Rich: Yeah. I would agree completely on, on Causeway. 'Cause like he has kind of the, the big scene in the movie, uh, like there's not really- David Canfield: Yup. Katie Rich: ... a- big scene's quote on quote 'cause it's such a small movie overall. Um, but again, he's someone who feels like when, not if. Like Barry Keoghan, like Jonathan Majors. Like people who- Rebecca Ford: Yeah. Katie Rich: ... just like are so undeniably talented that their moment is coming at some point. Okay. Before we go, I wanna talk about one more new release. We talked about Banshees and the Good Nurse a little bit. Both of those are out this week. Um, but also Aftersun, which is another A24 movie. We talked last week about how busy they are this year. Um, and it played at Cannes and I think got some good reception. And, you know, I'm watching all this from a distance. And then on the fall festivals, I just kept hearing from people being like I love this movie. This might be my favorite movie of the year. And it's got a big emotional pull, which as we've been saying is a powerful thing. So, um, Rebecca and Richard, like from having seen it at Cannes and watch it here, do you think it's just gonna keep growing and growing the way that it's been? Richard Lawson: Yeah. I mean, I don't know how- I don't know if it's an Academy movie necessarily but it's gonna win a ton of critic's prizes. Um- Katie Rich: Hm. Richard Lawson: ... you know- Katie Rich: For what? Richard Lawson: ... and... Uh, well, best first feature. I would- I think it's a strong contender for that at New York Film Festival, or at New York Film Critics Circle. Um, I think Paul Mescal. I think the young actress whose name, I'm sorry I don't have in front of me, like she's great. Screenplay, director, I don't know. Like she- like it's a- it's a really solid beloved movie, you know, critically beloved movie. Um, it's tiny. So I don't know, again, how Academy it is. But, um, it's definitely like one of the indies of the year, for sure. Rebecca Ford: Yeah. It's sort of the perfect A24 movie too because they're so good at these sort of slow burn, word of mouth campaigns. And, you know, they're so smart. They brought it to Telluride as like a sneak, um, and people were just talking about it on the ground there. And I feel like it's really building up that buzz. And I know all of us have loved it. And, and I, I, I agree. It's, it's, it's so small. I don't know how far it goes with the Academy. But it's, it's definitely gonna be a presence. And Paul is, like, getting out there and has been at all these events and, and so I feel like it's definitely gonna remain a part of the conversation. Richard Lawson: Yeah, sorry. The actress's name is Frankie Corio. She's really great. Um, and I'm just looking at the Wikipedia and it- it has one of those posters that's like six glowing quotes from major outlets like right, you know, like on top of the, the, the title. Katie Rich: [laughs] Richard Lawson: And it's just like it has that kind of patina of, like, this just absolute critical darling. Um, that I think they kind of were caught off guard by in Cannes. Like I think they thought it would play well but, like, it became a real thing. And then A24 bought it. And it just, you know, it, it, it feels like a, a small art house phenomenon of the kind that we don't always see in, in any given year. Katie Rich: Should we have talked about Paul Mescal in the Best Actor conversation earlier? Richard Lawson: I mean, maybe. You know? Like stranger things have happened. I keep thinking about De- Demián Bichir nomination for A Better Life, you know? Katie Rich: Mm. David Canfield: Hm. Richard Lawson: Which was a movie that, like, was not I don't think on a lot of radars but it played really well in LA. Um, you know, it was, you know, Chris Whites directed it. It like had, you know, pedigree to it certainly. And Demián Bichir had been around for a while. But like he got a Best Actor nomination for playing, you know, a dedicated father. I mean, the d- Paul Mescal's role in Aftersun is a bit more complicated, uh, y- you know, in terms of who that man is. But yeah. I don't know. Like I think those outlier nominations can happen certainly. Katie Rich: That does it for today's show. We'll be back next week. Find us in the meantime at VanityFair.com where Richard, you're reviewing, uh, uh, Ticket to Paradise this week. We didn't talk about it 'cause you haven't seen it yet but, uh- Richard Lawson: Yeah. Katie Rich: ... most anticipated movie of the fall in some quarters around here, I think. Richard Lawson: Always believe in Ol Parker, when it doubt. You know, Ol Parker made the second Mamma Mia movie, it's better than the first. He made the second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Also I think I was talking with podcast friend Bobby Finger about this, I think better than the first. So Ol Parker, you know, knows what he's doing. I'm excited. Katie Rich: We'll have- we'll have that conversation to look forward to next week. Uh, you can find us on Twitter @HWD and you can find us on our own. I'm @KatieRich. And Richard- Richard Lawson: Rylaws. Katie Rich: And David? David Canfield: DavidCanfield97. Katie Rich: And Rebecca? Rebecca Ford: BeccaMFord. Katie Rich: Our editor and producer is Brett Fugues. And this week's award for the most surprising reaction to Avatar: The Way of Water goes to Rebecca Ford. Rebecca Ford: Oh no, another true crime serial killer, dark movie.